{"id":117221,"date":"2020-04-01T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dacgroup.com\/how-to-be-data-driven-in-a-crisis\/"},"modified":"2024-12-19T16:43:19","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T21:43:19","slug":"how-to-be-data-driven-in-a-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dacgroup.com\/en-ca\/insights\/blog\/analytics\/how-to-be-data-driven-in-a-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"How to be data-driven in a crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

In times of extraordinary change, how should businesses navigate and interpret the massive quantities of data coming their way? Here at DAC, our strategic planners, analysts, and insights specialists spend all day every day interpreting numbers. But what happens when those numbers suddenly seem to become irrelevant in times of massive upheaval or change?<\/p>\n

Right now, we’re facing unprecedented times\u2014in the midst of this COVID-19 crisis, it seems like things are changing so quickly that one day’s numbers are no longer relevant by the next. We’re accustomed to looking at 30 or 60 or 90 days of historical data to make forecasts, but that feels impossible now.<\/p>\n

Many businesses who rely on big data for decision-making are struggling with this right now. So, we’d like to propose a few guiding principles to help data-driven decision makers cope with a crisis of this scale.<\/p>\n

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  1. \n

    In the short term, the numbers will lie<\/h2>\n

    South African poet Steve Hall caught the attention of the world last week when he started a poem about COVID-19 with the line “What a year this week has been!<\/a>“<\/em><\/p>\n

    The pace of change in these past days and weeks has been astounding. News briefings in the morning are obsolete by the evening. Businesses are adjusting every day to new closures, restrictions, regulations. Behaviors and assumptions that seemed safe a few short days ago are now unthinkable.<\/p>\n

    \"Empty<\/p>\n

    For example, a report issued by eMarketer on March 12\u2014just a couple of weeks ago, but seemingly in another lifetime\u2014predicted that global ad spending would increase by 7% in 2020 versus 2019<\/a>. However, even eMarketer prefaced its report stating that this assumption was based only on declines seen in China and East Asian markets, and that it did not take into account recent COVID-19 related closures and spikes in Europe, North America, or the rest of the world, nor did it factor in major cancellations or postponements such as the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.<\/p>\n

    Since the release of this report, eMarketer has chosen to stop making adjustments to its forecasts<\/a> until things start to stabilize enough to allow for more confidence in predictions. Most other data providers are doing the same.<\/p>\n

    This means that many of the numbers we usually are able to trust will lie to us in the short term. Looking at the past 30 days of data to predict the next 30 days won’t help in a crisis. Looking at last year’s sales numbers won’t give us an accurate depiction of the same period for this year. Things are changing too quickly.<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    In the long term, the numbers will adjust<\/h2>\n

    We’re all having conversations about the “new normal<\/a>” and what it might look like once we’re on the other side of this crisis<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    We can look to countries that have been battling this the longest, such as China or South Korea, to get a preview of what to expect, and confidently make certain predictions based on the trends in traffic that we’ve been seeing over several months worldwide. As consumers adjust their behavior to the new realities, we’re seeing spikes in demand for services such as grocery delivery<\/a>, while travel, retail, and events are taking the hardest hits.<\/p>\n

    \"SimilarWeb<\/p>\n

    Over time, we will see these trends start to emerge in the data. And they will allow us to make mid- and longer-term predictions about what various segments of the market will need, want, and expect from businesses moving forward.<\/li>\n

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